建信期货豆粕日报-20250806

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under research is soybean meal [1] 2. Report Date - The report was released on August 6, 2025 [2] 3. Research Team - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 4. Core Viewpoint - The domestic and foreign markets are diverging. The increase in the FOB quotation of Brazilian soybean exports has led to a steady increase in import costs. The view that the mid - term center of soybean meal will move up remains unchanged [7] 5. Content Summary by Section 5.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3050, the opening price was 3052, the highest price was 3089, the lowest price was 3051, the closing price was 3065, with a gain of 15 and a gain rate of 0.49%. The trading volume was 573,708, the open interest was 1,487,930, and the open interest change was 24,470 [6] - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3021, the opening price was 3022, the highest price was 3047, the lowest price was 3016, the closing price was 3023, with a gain of 2 and a gain rate of 0.07%. The trading volume was 881,233, the open interest was 1,275,203, and the open interest change was - 83,385 [6] - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3060, the opening price was 3059, the highest price was 3084, the lowest price was 3053, the closing price was 3061, with a gain of 1 and a gain rate of 0.03%. The trading volume was 119,894, the open interest was 630,336, and the open interest change was 4,891 [6] - Market Analysis - The US soybean futures contract in the external market fluctuated weakly, with the main contract at 995 cents. The Sino - US talks had no new additional news, and the previous tariffs were extended for 3 months, which depressed the demand outlook for US soybeans. The growth of the new - season US soybeans was good, with a good - excellent rate of 69% in the latest week, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. Only 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and the soil moisture had some tolerance. The expectation of a bumper harvest was gradually strengthening [7] - Although the US had reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, China, the largest exporter of US soybeans, still maintained a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. It was expected that the export of new - season US soybeans would decline [7] - Domestic soybean meal was stronger than the external market, in a state of wide - present and tight - future. The import window for US soybeans was in the fourth quarter. As time approached, there were topics and themes for soybean meal to rise. However, China had started importing Argentine soybean meal, and the export tax rate of Argentine soybeans had recently decreased. Although the cost of imported soybeans in China was expected to rise in the fourth quarter, the room for imagination might be relatively limited [7] 5.2 Industry News - USDA Crop Growth Report - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. The flowering rate was 85%, 76% in the previous week, 85% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 86%. The pod - setting rate was 58%, 41% in the previous week, 57% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 58% [10] - USDA Export Inspection Report - As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, higher than expected. The previous market forecast was 250,000 - 460,000 tons, 427,734 tons in the previous week (revised from an initial value of 409,714 tons). The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 1, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 266,883 tons. So far in this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 47,834,010 tons, compared with 43,037,528 tons in the same period of the previous year [10][11] - Canadian Rapeseed Situation - As of the week ending July 30, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 67.84%. As of the week ending July 29, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 60.3%. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages. Late - sown rapeseed was in the mid - flowering stage, and the earliest - sown rapeseed had fully set pods [11] 5.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [15][16][18]