建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 5, the main contract 2509 of coke futures continued to rebound with a narrowing increase, while the main contract 2601 of coking coal futures turned stronger, hitting the daily limit at the end of the session before opening and giving back a small part of the gains. Considering the tight supply in the spot market of coking coal and coke driven by supply - demand relations, and the potential for price increases, it is possible that the phased decline in the futures market of coking coal and coke has ended, and then it may turn into a volatile market, waiting for further development of the supply - demand relationship after the spot market price increase to determine the direction [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market - On August 5, for the coke futures main contract J2509, the previous closing price was 1585 yuan/ton, the opening price was 1585.5 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1626 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1551.5 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1615 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. The trading volume was 30,451 lots, the open interest was 25,782 lots, a decrease of 2,331 lots, and the capital inflow/outflow was - 0.58 billion yuan. For the coking coal futures main contract JM2601, the previous closing price was 1092.5 yuan/ton, the opening price was 1099.5 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1143 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1066.5 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1141 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.33%. The trading volume was 1,908,758 lots, the open interest was 487,977 lots, an increase of 59,997 lots, and the capital inflow was 10.71 billion yuan [5]. - Regarding the black - series futures positions on August 5, for different contracts such as RB2510, HC2510, SS2509, J2509, JM2601, and I2509, the long and short positions of the top 20 traders, their position changes, and the long - short comparison and deviation degrees are presented in the table [6]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - On August 5, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price in Tangshan was 1400 yuan/ton, also with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1485 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton; in Linfen it was 1500 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan it was 1350 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in other regions, the prices and their changes are also presented in the table [8]. 3.1.3 Technical Analysis - On August 5, for the coke 2509 contract, the daily KDJ indicator continued to diverge, with the J value rising, the K value slightly decreasing, and the D value continuing to decline. The daily MACD indicator's green bar continued to slightly expand. For the coking coal 2601 contract, the daily KDJ indicator diverged, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline. The daily MACD indicator had a death cross the previous day, and the green bar slightly expanded [8]. 3.1.4 Future Outlook - News: On July 31, Zhang Xing, Deputy Director of the General Affairs Department of the National Energy Administration, stated that the National Energy Administration will guide coal - producing provinces and enterprises to continue production organization, formulate scientific production plans, arrange equipment maintenance reasonably, and ensure coal production and supply. It will also conduct production inspections in key coal - producing provinces and urge enterprises to produce according to announced capacities [10]. - Fundamentals: For coke, the output of independent coking plants decreased slightly after two consecutive weeks of increase, and the output of steel mills' coke reached a new low since late February. The port coke inventory rose to a new high since early June, while the inventories of steel mills and coking plants reached new lows since late December last year. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 11 consecutive weeks, and on August 3, the 5th round of spot price increase for coke was proposed. For coking coal, from January to June, China's coking coal imports still had a large year - on - year decline of - 7.4%. In the past 7 weeks, the inventories of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants have significantly decreased, with declines of 17.6% and 33.8% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, reaching a new high since early February, the port inventory reached a new low since early August last year, and the steel mill inventory has increased for 3 consecutive weeks. With the continuous increase in steel mill inventory, the replenishment of coking plants has significantly cooled down [10]. 3.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China released the liquidity injection data of central bank tools in July 2025 on August 4. In July, the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) had a net withdrawal of 300 million yuan, the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) had a net injection of 10 billion yuan, the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) had a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan, the short - term reverse repurchase had a net injection of 18.8 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase had a net injection of 20 billion yuan [12]. - According to the VAT invoice data of the State Taxation Administration, driven by the large - scale equipment renewal policy, in the first half of the year, the national enterprise procurement of mechanical equipment increased by 11.1% year - on - year. With the continuous effectiveness of the consumer goods trade - in policy, consumer demand was released. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of household audio - visual equipment such as TVs and daily household appliances such as refrigerators increased by 45.3% and 56.6% respectively year - on - year; furniture retail related to home improvement increased by 34% year - on - year; the retail sales of communication equipment such as mobile phones under the expanded trade - in policy increased by 25.4% year - on - year [12]. - The VAT invoice data of the State Taxation Administration showed that in the first half of the year, driven by national tax incentives and other policies, the sales revenue growth rate of the manufacturing industry was 1.5 percentage points faster than the overall growth rate of national enterprises. The "high - end" development of the manufacturing industry advanced steadily, with the sales revenues of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries increasing by 8.9% and 11.9% respectively year - on - year [12][13]. - According to Securities Times, since April this year, the issuance speed of new local government special bonds has accelerated monthly, and the issuance scale reached a new high in July. Enterprise Early Warning System data showed that in July, the national issuance of new special bonds was 61.6936 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9842 billion yuan from the previous month [13]. - Shaanxi Coal Industry announced that in July 2025, its coal production was 14.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.10% compared to 13.96 million tons in July 2024; the self - produced coal sales volume was 12.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.89% [13]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, based on preliminary monthly data, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in July were 1.18 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. From January to July this year, the cumulative wholesale was 7.63 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [13]. - On August 4, Luo Junjie, Vice President of the China National Machinery Industry Federation, stated that under the combined effect of existing policies and a new round of "two new" policies, domestic market demand improved, driving the overall production and sales of mechanical industry products to be better than the same period last year. In the first half of the year, among the 122 key - monitored main products, 84 products had a year - on - year increase in output, accounting for 68.9%, an increase of 7.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year; 38 products had a year - on - year decrease in output, accounting for 31.1% [13]. - According to the China National Machinery Industry Federation, in the first half of the year, the new energy vehicle market maintained rapid growth. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively, and the market penetration rate reached 44.3%, a record high for the same period [13]. - According to the Daily Economic News, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform on August 4 that the company currently has no over - production. The national "anti - involution" policies will lead to a contraction in overall coal supply, the profitability of the downstream steel industry will improve and be transmitted upstream, and the demand is expected to increase due to large - scale infrastructure projects. The company's performance is expected to recover due to the bottoming - out and rebound of coal prices [13]. - According to Xinjiang Daily, since this summer, Xinjiang Railway has made efforts in coal supply transportation, with a daily coal shipment of 410,000 tons, including 252,500 tons of coal transported out of Xinjiang, strongly supporting power generation enterprises to meet the peak summer demand [13]. - According to Guangzhou Daily, on August 3, the Panamanian - flagged "Dinghe" vessel loaded with 8,000 tons of steel and steel plates sailed from the Baosteel finished product terminal in the Donghaidao Port Area of Zhanjiang Port, Guangdong to Laem Chabang Port, Thailand, marking the official opening of a new direct shipping route from Baosteel Zhanjiang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. to Thailand [13]. - On August 4, the Malaysian Minister of Trade reported the tariff negotiation situation with the United States to the parliament. Malaysia agreed to reduce or cancel import tariffs on 98.4% of goods on the US tariff list, exempt sales taxes on some US agricultural products such as fruits and seafood, and purchase US semiconductor, aerospace, and data center products worth 150 billion US dollars within five years [13]. - The Indonesian coal giant Bumi Resources recently released its 2025 H1 financial report, showing that the company's net profit in the first half of the year dropped sharply by 75.97% year - on - year to 20.4 million US dollars (approximately 331.21 trillion Indonesian rupiahs). Although the company's revenue increased by 13.78% year - on - year to 677.93 million US dollars, the increase in financial costs and business transformation pressure led to a significant shrinkage in profits [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the aggregated spot price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants, the production and capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke, the national daily average hot metal output, the coke inventory of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the raw coal and clean coal inventory of coal washing plants, the coking coal inventory of ports/coking plants/steel mills, the basis between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the September contract, and the basis between Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the January contract [15][17][23][25][27][32].