Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with cost support as a positive factor and weak demand as a negative factor. It is expected to show a volatile trend today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies, the off - season of agricultural film demand, and weak downstream demand [4][6]. - For PP, the overall fundamentals are also neutral, with cost support as a positive factor and weak demand in sectors like pipes and plastic weaving as a negative factor. It is also expected to show a volatile trend today considering the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies and weak downstream demand [7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth - stabilizing plan. The short - term increase pulled by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. In the supply - demand aspect, it is the off - season for agricultural films, and other film demands are flat with many downstream enterprises under maintenance. The current spot price of the LLDPE delivery product is 7270 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 53, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 tons (-7.2), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies, the off - season of agricultural film demand, and weak downstream demand [4]. - Leverage Factors: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The short - term increase pulled by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. In the supply - demand aspect, it is the off - season for downstream demand, and affected by high temperature and heavy rain in summer, the demands for pipes and plastic weaving are weak. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 7100 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 5, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 tons (-1.6), showing a bearish signal [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also a bearish signal [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies and weak downstream demand in pipes and plastic weaving [7]. - Leverage Factors: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [9]. Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7270 (-30), and prices of different futures contracts such as the 09 contract, L01, L05, etc. have corresponding changes. The basis of the 09 contract is - 53 (-74). The warehouse receipt is 5816 (0), and there are details about import prices and spreads [10]. - PP: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7100 (-50), and prices of different futures contracts such as the 09 contract, PP01, PP05, etc. have corresponding changes. The basis of the 09 contract is 5 (-71). The warehouse receipt is 12305 (0), and there are details about import prices and spreads [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and other indicators have changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4319.5 with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and other indicators have changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906 with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250806
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-06 02:19