建信期货贵金属日评-20250806

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted by Trump's 2.0 new policy which accelerates the global political and economic restructuring. Gold's medium - term upward trend remains good, with London gold likely to trade in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the need for reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market of gold. Trump's multiple reforms lead to economic weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations, supporting the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high gold prices also mean increased volatility. In the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and rising inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing. Short - term, London gold is expected to continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Analysis - Intraday Market: Overnight news was stable. The dollar index rebounded slightly, and gold prices oscillated after a sharp rise on Friday. London gold traded between $3340 - $3385 per ounce for two consecutive days. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, followed the A - share and other industrial metals higher due to Fed interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - Medium - term Market: Since late April, London gold has been trading in the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but Trump's new policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks supported the price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets. The gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range in the short term [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, etc., but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale oil purchases from Russia. India will take measures to safeguard its interests. Switzerland is seeking to avoid a 39% US import tariff on its goods [17]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the time for an interest - rate cut is approaching as the US job market is weakening and there are no signs of continuous inflation caused by tariffs [17]. - The CEO of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group said that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as October due to reduced trade - related uncertainties and relatively high domestic inflation pressure [17].