沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250806

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The outer market of nickel has a slight correction, facing significant pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel are weakly stable, with some quotes rising, but the cost line remains low. The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season from July to August, and the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel has a slight increase this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries is decreasing, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The Shanghai nickel 2509 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel has increased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is weakly stable, the ocean freight is firm, and the price of ferronickel is weakly stable with some slight increases. The cost line is still low, and the stainless - steel consumption has entered the off - season. The stainless steel 2509 contract will also fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview: On August 5th, the price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 120910 yuan, up 280 yuan from the previous day; the price of London nickel was 15055 dollars, down 50 dollars; the price of stainless - steel's main contract was 12960 yuan, up 35 yuan. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121900 yuan, up 650 yuan [12]. - Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices: On August 5th, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars/wet ton, down 1 dollar; the high - nickel ferronickel was 916 yuan/nickel point, up 2 yuan [24]. Inventory Changes - Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory: As of August 5th, LME nickel inventory was 211254 tons, an increase of 2172 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 20923 tons, a decrease of 247 tons [15]. - Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory: As of August 5th, stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 102865 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. On August 1st, the national stainless - steel inventory was 111.12 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 million tons compared with the previous period, but the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 0.67 million tons [19][20]. Cost Information - Stainless - Steel Production Cost: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12807 yuan, the waste - steel production cost was 13477 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16399 yuan [26]. - Nickel Import Cost: The calculated import price of nickel was 121536 yuan/ton [29].