沪锌期货早报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2509 is expected to be weak with oscillations. The previous trading day saw a rebound in Shanghai Zinc with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, with more reduction in short positions. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, the short - term KDJ indicator is rising but in the weak area, the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is increasing while the short - side strength is decreasing, and the long - side has a slight advantage [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons and consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons and consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons. The overall situation is considered bullish [2]. - The basis is - 40 with the spot price at 22340, which is neutral [2]. - On August 5th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4725 tons to 92275 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 100 tons to 14807 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating rebound and closed below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is neutral [2]. - The main positions are net short, with longs turning to shorts, which is bearish [2]. Futures Market Quotes - On August 5th, for the zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange, different delivery months had various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the 2509 contract had a previous settlement of 22205, an opening price of 22330, a high of 22395, a low of 22250, a closing price of 22380, a settlement reference price of 22315, a price increase of 175, a trading volume of 85449 lots, a trading value of 953599340 yuan, and an open interest of 98472 lots with a decrease of 4253 lots [3]. Spot Market Quotes - On August 5th, in the domestic main spot markets, zinc concentrate price in the material area was 17010 yuan/ton with an increase of 80 yuan/ton; zinc ingot price was 22340 yuan/ton with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet price was 4083 yuan/unit with an increase of 3 yuan/unit; galvanized pipe price was 4484 yuan/ton with an increase of 1 yuan/ton; zinc alloy price in Ningbo was 22850 yuan/ton with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; zinc powder price in Changsha was 27360 yuan/ton with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; zinc oxide price in Taizhou was 20700 yuan/ton with no change; and secondary zinc oxide price in Lin was 7742 yuan/ton with a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory Statistics - From July 24th to August 4th, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 8.08 million tons to 8.72 million tons. Compared with July 28th, the inventory increased by 0.36 million tons, and compared with July 31st, it increased by 0.28 million tons [5]. - On August 5th, the SHFE zinc warrant report showed a total of 14807 tons with a decrease of 100 tons, mainly due to a 100 - ton decrease in Tianjin's warehouse [6]. - On August 5th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4725 tons to 92275 tons, and the注销占比 (cancellation ratio) was 47.33% [7]. Price Summaries - On August 5th, the prices of zinc concentrate in major domestic cities were mostly around 17010 yuan/ton with an increase of 80 yuan/ton, except for some areas like Hechi (16810 yuan/ton), Longnan (16960 yuan/ton), and Chifeng (16910 yuan/ton) [9]. - On August 5th, the prices of zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 130 yuan/ton. For example, Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter's 0 zinc ingot was 22660 yuan/ton, and Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry's 0 zinc ingot was 22800 yuan/ton [13]. - On August 5th, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different domestic regions varied. For 50% grade zinc concentrate, the fees ranged from 3400 - 4100 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% grade zinc concentrate processing fee was 70 US dollars/kiloton [17]. Trading and Position Ranking - On August 5th, for the Shanghai Futures Exchange member zinc trading and position ranking of the zn2509 contract, in terms of trading volume, Guotai Junan ranked first with 35478 lots and an increase of 14503 lots; in terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 9092 lots and an increase of 98 lots; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 9684 lots and a decrease of 933 lots [18].