《能源化工》日报-20250806

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Polyester Industry Chain: PX supply is expected to increase in August due to new device production and restart of some PX maintenance devices. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and PX is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, with a small inventory build - up expected. Short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products also face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - Urea Industry: The main driving force for the rebound of the urea market is the surge in overseas export demand and the expected increase in domestic industrial demand. The secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply due to local maintenance. The short - term market is still in the shock range, and attention should be paid to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. - Methanol Industry: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, the basis is weakening, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. - Chlor - Alkali Industry: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply, and the overall outlook is neutral to weak. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to decline [27]. - Crude Oil Industry: The overnight oil price declined due to OPEC+ production increase, which is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term. If there is no greater geopolitical shock, the supply - demand logic will continue to dominate the oil price trend [56]. - Polyolefin Industry: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level. However, there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season, and the overall valuation is moderately high with few fundamental contradictions [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry Chain - Price and Spread: On August 5, most polyester product prices and spreads declined. For example, POY150/48 price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 74.7% [2]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is expected to weaken. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose [2]. - Strategy: For PX, close short positions for PX09 and pay attention to the support around 6650. For PTA, close short positions for TA and conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Price and Spread: On August 5, most prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene declined. For example, the pure benzene - styrene spot price dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and the EB cash flow decreased significantly [7]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory [7]. - Strategy: For styrene, close short positions for EB09 [7]. Urea Industry - Price and Spread: On August 5, the urea futures price and related spreads showed certain changes, and the spot price also had different degrees of increase or decrease in different regions [12]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The main driving force for the rebound is the increase in demand, and the secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply. The short - term market is still in the shock range [12]. - Strategy: Pay attention to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. Methanol Industry - Price and Spread: On August 5, the methanol futures price and related spreads changed, and the spot price also had different trends in different regions [17]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The domestic production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [17]. - Strategy: Buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Price and Spread: On August 5, the prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 30 yuan/ton [22]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand [27]. - Strategy: For caustic soda, hold short positions at high levels. For PVC, expect the price to continue to decline [27]. Crude Oil Industry - Price and Spread: On August 6, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different varieties and contracts also changed [56]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term [56]. - Strategy: Adopt a band - trading strategy, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Capture volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [56]. Polyolefin Industry - Price and Spread: On August 5, the prices of polyolefin futures and spot products increased to varying degrees, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [53]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season [53]. - Strategy: Close short positions at 7200 - 7300 for the previous single - side short positions, and continue to hold the LP01 position [53].