大越期货纯碱早报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1,271 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.44% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,250 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.81%; the main basis was - 21 yuan/ton, a rise of 61.54% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental - Supply - The production profit of heavy soda ash has rebounded from a historical low, with a profit of - 22.90 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and 56.50 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.27%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 69.98 tons, with 39.87 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash, with 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned 750 tons in 2025 (actual production of 100 tons) [21]. 3.4 Fundamental - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 109.83% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, and the operating rate was stable at 75% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cut production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [30]. 3.5 Fundamental - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 179.58 tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [33]. 3.6 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5].