大越期货天胶早报-20250806

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook [6]. - The market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral assessment [6]. - The basis is - 1010 with a spot price of 14450, showing a bearish sign [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, with a neutral situation [6]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, with a neutral assessment [6]. - The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish sign [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [6][8]. - Price: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on August 5th, and the basis weakened on August 5th [10][37]. - Inventory: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased slightly [16][19]. - Import: The import volume has a seasonal decline [22]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8]. - Likely to Fall Factors: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao [8]. 3.4 Basis - The spot price is 14450, and the basis is - 1010, showing a bearish situation [6].