大越期货油脂早报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as the peak production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,448, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [2]. - Market: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with production cuts falling short of expectations and subsequent supply increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,962, with a basis of 644, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [3]. - Market: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with production cuts falling short of expectations and subsequent supply increase [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,708, with a basis of 93, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - Bearish Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - Current Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].