《农产品》日报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1. Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil production is seasonally increasing, and with declining exports, the end - of - month inventory is expected to reach around 2.23 million tons, potentially restricting price rebounds. In China, short - term attention should be paid to whether the palm oil futures can effectively stand above 9,000 yuan, and there may be pressure for high - level oscillations or sideways consolidation [1]. - Soybean oil: U.S. biodiesel policies support the long - term trend of U.S. soybean oil, but the poor performance of crude oil due to OPEC's planned production increase drags down soybean oil. In China, soybean oil inventory is expected to decrease after mid - August as demand picks up, and long - term basis is still bullish [1]. 2.2. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the corn market sentiment is bearish, with the futures price oscillating weakly. The decline is limited as there is still time before the large - scale listing of new - season corn. In the long term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decrease, and supply pressure may lead to a lower valuation of the futures price [2]. 2.3. Sugar - The price of raw sugar is under pressure due to strong production in Brazil, but it is difficult to break previous lows in the short term. The overall outlook is bearish. In the Chinese market, demand is weak, and with increasing imports, the supply - demand situation is expected to ease, and Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to trend downwards [6][7]. 2.4. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has slightly declined, and it is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The near - month 09 contract faces strong upward pressure. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and while short - selling is not recommended blindly, the impact of hedging funds should be noted [8]. 2.5. Cotton - The supply - side pressure of cotton has marginally decreased, but the downstream industry remains weak. With the decline in cotton prices, downstream sentiment has become more pessimistic. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits on the 09 contract and hold short positions on far - month contracts [10]. 2.6. Meal - The new - season U.S. soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and export concerns limit the upside of U.S. soybean prices. Brazilian premiums are rising, increasing China's import costs. China's soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, but there are concerns about future supply after October. It is recommended to hold long positions on the 2601 contract of domestic soybean meal, but the strength of oils may limit the upside of meal prices [12]. 2.7. Eggs - The supply of eggs is expected to increase in August, while demand will enter the peak season. There is a possibility of a rebound in spot egg prices, but overall, the trading outlook is bearish due to large supply pressure [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Fats and Oils - Soybean Oil: On August 5, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,480 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.36%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 8,344 yuan, up 94 yuan (1.14%); the basis of Y2509 was 136 yuan, down 64 yuan (- 32.00%); the warehouse receipts increased by 1,270 to 11,540, a 12.37% increase [1]. - Palm Oil: On August 2, the spot price in Guangdong was 8,900 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.91%) from August 4; the futures price of P2509 was 9,064 yuan, up 226 yuan (2.56%); the basis of P2509 was - 164 yuan, down 146 yuan (- 811.11%); the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 570 [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: On August 2, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9,680 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.83%) from August 4; the futures price of O1509 was 9,542 yuan, up 73 yuan (0.77%); the basis of O1509 was 138 yuan, up 7 yuan (12.07%); the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,487 [1]. 2.2. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: On August 5, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2,249 yuan, down 35 yuan (- 1.53%); the basis was 71 yuan, up 15 yuan (26.79%); the 9 - 1 spread was 55 yuan, down 17 yuan (- 23.61%) [2]. - Corn Starch: On August 5, the futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,654 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.38%); the basis was 56 yuan, up 10 yuan (21.74%); the 9 - 1 spread was 91 yuan, up 7 yuan (8.33%) [2]. 2.3. Sugar - Futures Market: On August 6, the price of sugar 2601 was 5,638 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan (0.04%); the price of sugar 2509 was 5,697 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.37%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 59 yuan, up 23 yuan (28.05%) [6]. - Spot Market: The price in Nanning remained at 6,030 yuan/ton; the Nanning basis was 333 yuan, up 21 yuan (6.73%); the import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4,433 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.07%) [6]. 2.4. Live Pigs - Futures Market: On August 6, the price of the main contract was 13,905 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.40%); the 9 - 11 spread was 35 yuan, down 170 yuan (- 82.93%); the position of the main contract decreased by 2,721 to 38,250 [8]. - Spot Market: The price in Henan was 14,130 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 924 to 136,211 heads, a 0.67% decrease [8]. 2.5. Cotton - Futures Market: On August 6, the price of cotton 2509 was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.15%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13,820 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.11%); the 9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan, down 32 yuan (- 26.92%) [10]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 12,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.08%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (0.11%) [10]. 2.6. Meal - Soybean Meal: On August 6, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.69%); the futures price of M2509 was 3,024 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.47%); the basis of M2509 was - 104 yuan, up 6 yuan (5.45%); the warehouse receipts increased by 4,275 to 5,275, a 427.5% increase [12]. - Rapeseed Meal: On August 6, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.39%); the futures price of RM2509 was 2,678 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.11%); the basis of RM2509 was - 78 yuan, up 7 yuan (8.24%); the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,200 [12]. 2.7. Eggs - Futures Market: On August 6, the price of the egg 09 contract was 3,330 yuan/500KG, down 30 yuan (- 0.89%); the price of the egg 10 contract was 3,252 yuan/500KG, up 9 yuan (0.28%); the 9 - 10 spread was 78 yuan, down 39 yuan (- 33.33%) [15]. - Spot Market: The egg - producing area price was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan (- 0.89%); the basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, up 4 yuan (0.93%) [15].