大越期货沥青期货早报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side indicates that the total planned asphalt production in China in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The capacity utilization rate has increased, and refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure. [8] - The demand side shows that the current demand is below the historical average level, with different trends in the start - up rates of various types of asphalt and related products. [8] - In terms of cost, the processing profit of asphalt has decreased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term. [9] - It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating between 3521 - 3567. [10] - The factors affecting the market include both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors are the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support, and negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward trend of demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. [12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The total planned asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The capacity utilization rate is 34.7555%, a 3.835 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Sample enterprise production has increased, and refineries' production increases supply pressure. [8] - Demand: The start - up rates of different types of asphalt and related products show mixed trends, with the overall demand below the historical average. [8] - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 696.98 yuan/ton, a 4.00% decrease month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 760.1786 yuan/ton, a 10.25% decrease month - on - month. The cost support is expected to weaken. [9] - Inventory: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory are all decreasing. [10] - Expected Trend: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with asphalt 2510 in the 3521 - 3567 range. [10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, changes, and inventory of different asphalt contracts, including 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on production, sales, and profit margins. [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China regions, showing the price differences between spot and futures. [20] - Spread: It includes the spread analysis of main contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), asphalt - crude oil price trends, crude oil cracking spreads, and the ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil. [23][26][29][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, reflecting the price changes in the spot market. [37] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: Analyzes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread between asphalt and coking. [39][43] - Supply - Side Analysis: Covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, price of Marey crude oil, local refinery asphalt production, start - up rate, and maintenance loss volume. [45][47][50][55][57][60][62] - Inventory Analysis: Includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory - to - stock ratio, and import and export inventory. [65][69][72][75] - Import and Export Analysis: Analyzes the trends of asphalt exports, imports, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt. [75][78] - Demand - Side Analysis: Considers factors such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, machinery demand), asphalt start - up rate, and downstream start - up conditions. [81][84][87][91][96][98][100] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data. [105]