工业硅期货早报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has increased slightly. It is expected that industrial silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 8250 - 8650 [6]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the supply-side production scheduling continues to increase. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable. It is expected that polycrystalline silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 48885 - 51775 [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% decrease from the previous week, and the demand remains sluggish [6]. - Inventory: The silicon inventory is 229,000 tons, at a high level; the organic silicon inventory is 78,100 tons, also at a high level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 46,000 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: The sample oxygen - permeable 553 production in Xinjiang has a loss of 2354 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On August 5th, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 610 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory Changes: The social inventory is 540,000 tons, a 0.93% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 171,450 tons, a 3.40% decrease from the previous week; the main port inventory is 119,000 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week, the polycrystalline silicon output was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous week. The scheduled production in August is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11GW, a 1.78% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. In July, the battery cell output was 57.26GW, a 1.90% increase from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 3.86GW, a 27.57% decrease from the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 59.15GW, a 3.30% increase from the previous month. In July, the component output was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month. It is expected that the component output in August will be 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month. The European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon in the industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9500 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On August 5th, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3330 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [12]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [12]. 2. Fundamentals/Position Data The report provides a large amount of data on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, including production, inventory, cost, and price trends over different time periods, as well as the supply and demand balance sheets of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon [18][20][41][65].