大越期货甲醇早报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are becoming more polarized, with regional trends expected to be prominent in the future. The port market is likely to accumulate inventory this week due to concentrated imports, and weak demand may lead to a downward adjustment. The inland market has low inventory and healthy supply - demand fundamentals, but may be affected by the port's weak market and maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2360 - 2410 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: The port market may accumulate inventory, and demand is weak; the inland market has no supply pressure in the short term, and the supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, but it is affected by the port market. The overall assessment is neutral [5]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 13, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 65.03 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.32 tons from the previous period; the overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 4.05 tons to 36.63 tons, which is bullish [5]. - Market: The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is below the moving average, which is neutral [5]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [5]. - Expectation: It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2360 - 2410 [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Some devices are shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol start - up rate in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; some acetic acid devices have been put into production or are planned to be put into production; CTO enterprises in the northwest still have external procurement needs [6]. - Bearish Factors: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated ship arrivals at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the off - season, and the MTBE start - up rate has decreased significantly; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in various regions has different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 1.41% week - on - week, while the price in Inner Mongolia has increased by 1.70% week - on - week. The futures closing price has increased by 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Basis Spread Structure: The basis spread of various regions and the import basis spread have changed. For example, the basis spread between Jiangsu and Shandong has decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 24 yuan/ton, and the import basis spread has decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [8]. - Start - up Rate: The national weighted average start - up rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The start - up rate in different regions has also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East and South China ports has increased, and the available and tradable inventory in coastal areas has also increased [8]. - Production Profit: The production profits of different methanol production processes are different. For example, the profit of coal - to - methanol has decreased by 21 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol has increased by 334 yuan/ton week - on - week [18]. - Downstream Product Price and Profit: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have little change. The production profits and loads of downstream products have also changed slightly [29][33][36][40]. - MTO Production Profit and Load: The MTO device production profit has increased by 109 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the load has increased by 0.15% [45]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance: Many domestic methanol enterprises are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or reduced load, involving various regions such as the northwest, north, east, and southwest [55]. - Foreign Methanol Device Operation: The operation status of foreign methanol devices varies. Some devices in Iran are in the process of restarting, and some devices in other countries are operating normally or at a low start - up rate [56]. - Olefin Device Operation: The operation status of domestic olefin devices is also different. Some devices are operating stably, some are shut down for maintenance, and some are expected to be put into production [57].