大越期货菜粕早报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2700 - 2760. Supported by good demand and technical buying, with low rapeseed meal oil - mill operation and low inventory, the spot demand has entered a short - term peak season. Although the import of rapeseed has increased, the oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The short - term impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China is positive but limited. The price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff situation [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509: 2700 - 2760 range oscillation. Fundamental aspects are neutral; the basis is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards, which is bullish; the main short positions have increased with capital inflow, which is bearish. In the short term, the price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, the global geopolitical conflict may increase, providing support for commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12][13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Volume: From July 25 to August 5, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was relatively small, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices also fluctuated, with the spot price showing a narrowing high - discount situation [14][16]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, up 25.83% week - on - week and down 44.12% year - on - year. The import of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory remained low. The oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly [9][27][29]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, showing the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and there has been capital inflow [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term outlook for rapeseed meal is range - bound fluctuations. The price is affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China. It is expected to return to the range of 2700 - 2760 [9].