大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate decreased by 7.31% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The demand side showed a decrease in inventory for some sample enterprises, and the cost side had different trends for different raw materials. The market is expected to see strengthened demand next month, with potential inventory reduction, and the supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - driven. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,200 - 69,480 [8]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also some利多 factors such as manufacturers' production cut plans and a decrease in imports from Chile, while利空 factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends and insufficient demand from the power battery end [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.31% [8]. - Demand: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 93,672 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,499 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32% [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 68,421 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.02%, with a production profit of 1,755 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 75,292 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 6,997 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production enthusiasm [8]. - Base Difference: On August 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 3,360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 51,958 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.18%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,888 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.18%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 43,880 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.42%. The total inventory was 141,726 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00%, higher than the historical average [8]. - Disk Surface: The MA20 of the disk surface is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Force Position: The net short position of the main force decreased [8]. - Expectation: In July 2025, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 84,200 physical tons next month, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 18,500 physical tons next month, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, with potential inventory reduction. The CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat daily and lower than the historical average. The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - driven, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,200 - 69,480 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.86% to 2.75% [14]. - Base Difference: The base difference of different contracts showed an upward trend, with the increase ranging from 35.43% to 81.40% [14]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 14,443, a 14.60% increase from the previous value [14]. - Upstream Prices: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and other upstream products had different trends, with some remaining unchanged and some showing slight decreases or increases [14]. - Prices of Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries: The prices of cathode materials and lithium batteries also had different trends, with most showing only slight changes [14]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Overview - Supply - Side Data: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different changes, and the production and processing costs of lithium spodumene also had corresponding trends [16]. - Demand - Side Data: The production and inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials showed different changes, and the monthly production and export of phosphoric acid iron also had corresponding trends [16]. 3.4 Other Supply - Related Data - Lithium Ore Supply: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore had different trends over time [22]. - Lithium Carbonate Supply: The production, import, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources and grades showed different trends over time [27]. - Lithium Hydroxide Supply: The production, export, and capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources showed different trends over time [34]. 3.5 Cost - Profit Data - Lithium Compound Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and recycled lithium, showed different trends over time [39][42][45]. 3.6 Inventory Data - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate from different sources showed different trends over time [47]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources showed different trends over time [47]. 3.7 Demand - Related Data - Lithium Battery Demand: The price, production, shipment, and export of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [50]. - Ternary Precursor Demand: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different trends over time [56][59]. - Ternary Material Demand: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time [62][64]. - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium Demand: The price, cost, profit, production, export, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends over time [66][69]. - New Energy Vehicle Demand: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [74][75].