LPG早报-20250806

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to increased domestic chemical demand in the short - term, weak domestic combustion demand, high port inventory pressure, and a weak international fundamental situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Price and Market Data - Spot Prices: Spot prices are oscillating downward, with the cheapest deliverable being South China civil gas at 4400 yuan/ton. The main contract has shifted to the 09 contract, and the basis has strengthened to 445 (+79) [1] - Futures Market: The PG futures market is running weakly. The spread between months has weakened, with the 09 - 10 spread at - 436 (-23) on Tuesday and - 439 (-18) later. The inter - month reverse spread continues to strengthen [1] - International Market: The international market fundamentals are loose, showing continuous weakness. The August CP official price has been lowered. Propane is at 520 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 55 US dollars/ton from the previous month; butane is at 490 US dollars/ton, also a decrease of 55 US dollars/ton from the previous month [1] b. Cost and Profit - Production Profit: FEI and CP continue to decline, PP rises, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has strengthened. The production cost of CP is lower than that of FEI. The spot profit of PDH - made PP oscillates, and the paper profit continues to improve; the profits of other downstream devices have all decreased [1] - Arrival Cost: The estimated arrival cost of propane is about 4327 yuan/ton, and that of butane is about 4090 yuan/ton [1] c. Market Structure and Indicators - Warehouse Receipts: The registered quantity of warehouse receipts is 9759 lots (-45), with a decrease of 20 lots at Qingdao Yunda and 25 lots at Ningbo Baidinian [1] - Regional Spreads: PG - CP is at 30 (-13), FEI - MB is at 159 (+3), FEI - CP is at 5 (+0.5); the US - Asia arbitrage window is open; the CP propane arrival discount oscillates. FEI - MOPJ first expands and then shrinks, with the latest at - 53 (-5) [1] d. Supply and Demand - Supply: There is an increase in arrivals, port inventories are accumulating, factory inventories are slightly decreasing, and the commodity volume has slightly recovered [1] - Demand: Domestic chemical demand is expected to increase in the short - term, while domestic combustion demand remains weak. The PDH operating rate is 72.63% (-0.5 pct), with Liaoning Jinfa resuming production but Tianjin Bohua shutting down due to a fault. Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Ruiheng are expected to restart next week [1]