农产品早报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, in the short - term, the current price has strong support as the port corn inventory continues to decline under the tight balance sheet of the old - crop season. In the long - term, if the import profit space persists, it may increase forward import orders, and the new - crop supply may put downward pressure on prices due to lower planting costs [3]. - For starch, in the short - term, it is expected to have a weak rebound as the price follows raw material fluctuations and has strong support after a correction. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [3]. - For sugar, the international sugar price is under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season, but there may be a corrective rebound due to uncertain production. The domestic sugar price follows the international trend, and the upcoming large - scale arrival of imported sugar creates upward pressure on the futures price [6]. - For cotton, with the weakening of the commodity atmosphere, the 09 contract has a strong reverse - spread market. It's advisable to reduce positions and take profits. The future depends on the recovery of downstream demand [7]. - For eggs, the price rebounded in July due to supply - demand resonance, then corrected. It is expected to rise again in mid - August due to increased demand, but high inventory may limit the rebound height [10]. - For apples, the new - crop yield may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, with low inventory and slow de - stocking. The price is currently stable [13]. - For pigs, long - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. The futures market is affected by sentiment and awaits spot verification. The short - term spot market is in a weak and volatile state [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From July 30 to August 5, the price in Changchun remained at 2230, while in Jinzhou it decreased by 20, in Weifang it increased by 10, and in Shekou it decreased by 10. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2900 and 2980 respectively [2]. - Analysis: Imported corn auctions aim to ease supply shortages without suppressing prices. The impact on supply is limited. In the short - term, the price is supported by tight supply, and in the long - term, new - crop supply may be a negative factor. Starch prices are divided, with high inventory and a bearish long - term outlook [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From July 30 to August 5, the prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained stable, while in Kunming there was no change. The basis increased by 21, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 44. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 113 [6]. - Analysis: International sugar prices are under pressure from Brazil's supply, but there may be a rebound. Domestic prices follow the international trend, and the arrival of imported sugar creates pressure on the futures price [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From July 30 to August 5, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 15, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 121. The price of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 20, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 36 [7]. - Analysis: The 09 cotton contract had a strong reverse - spread market. It's time to reduce positions, and the future depends on downstream demand [7]. Eggs - Price Data: From July 30 to August 5, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained stable, while in Hubei it decreased by 0.15. The basis increased by 184 [9]. - Analysis: Egg prices rebounded in July and then corrected. They are expected to rise again in mid - August, but high inventory may limit the increase [10]. Apples - Price Data: From July 30 to August 5, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800. The national inventory decreased by 46, Shandong inventory decreased by 17, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 33 [12][13]. - Analysis: The new - crop yield may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, with low inventory and slow de - stocking. The price is currently stable [13]. Pigs - Price Data: From July 30 to August 5, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.05, in Anhui Hefei increased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 105 [13]. - Analysis: Long - term supply pressure remains. The futures market awaits spot verification, and the short - term spot market is weak and volatile [13].