芳烃橡胶早报-20250806

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the start - up is expected to gradually stabilize and have upward flexibility. Investors can focus on opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, in the short term, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The pattern is good and the profit is not low. In the long - term, there is an inventory accumulation expectation due to overseas device restart and increased coal - based load. It should be viewed with wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite devices [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of polyester yarn is reduced, the downstream start - up may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fee on the disk is still in a low range, investors can focus on opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable with a not - high absolute level but no seasonal reduction, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased from $73.2 to $67.6, the PTA internal - market spot price decreased from 4860 to 4660, and the PTA processing margin changed from 119 to 75 [2]. - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials increased the load of its 7.2 - million - ton device; Taihua plans to overhaul a 1.5 - million - ton device and restart a 1.2 - million - ton device [2]. - Market Situation: The load of proximal TA existing devices decreased significantly while new devices started production. The polyester load declined slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis was weak, and the spot processing fee decreased again. The domestic start - up of PX increased slightly, there were some overseas accidents, the PXN weakened significantly, the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization declined, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia continued to shrink [3]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the MEG external - market price decreased from 531 to 523, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 712 to 489 [3]. - Device Changes: The 300,000 - ton device in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, restarted [3]. - Market Situation: The start - up of domestic coal - based MEG decreased slightly. Affected by the weather, both the port arrival and提货 decreased significantly during the week, the port inventory decreased slightly, the downstream stocking level decreased significantly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the profit declined from a high level [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6665 to 6550, and the short - fiber profit increased from - 23 to 56 [3]. - Device Changes: The small - line of Xianglu stopped for maintenance, and the start - up decreased slightly to 90.3% [3]. - Market Situation: The start - up of the polyester yarn end remained stable, the raw - material stocking decreased, the finished - product inventory decreased, and the profit declined [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - Price Changes: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 1780 to 1760, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14545 to 14145 [3]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected tapping [3]. Styrene - Price and Margin Changes: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 767 to 750, and the styrene domestic profit changed from - 162 to - 182 [6]. - Market Situation: The price of related products such as styrene, PS, and ABS changed slightly, and the profit of some products also changed slightly [6].