燃料油早报-20250806

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil declined, the near - month spread was weak and at a historical low, and the EW spread rebounded on Friday. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level, and the FU01 internal - external spread was 0. The 0.5 cracking spread of Singapore oscillated downward, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.25/ton, the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated around $10, and the 09 internal - external spread continued to weaken. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's on - shore and floating storage increased, the near - month spread was under pressure. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high for the same period, with high net exports, while the shipments from the UAE decreased significantly month - on - month. Egypt's net imports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a seasonal high. The divergence between the East and West of high - sulfur fuel oil continued, and the current price difference led to logistics changes. In the heavy - quality pattern, the 380cst cracking spread was the weakest, and the heavy - quality crude oil premium was the strongest. A two - way regression is expected in the future. [5] - This week, LU weakened as expected, the external MF0.5 followed gasoline and diesel to weaken slightly, the basis oscillated, and the LU internal - external spread weakened. The Singapore hi - 5 spread decreased slightly, and there is no clear direction recently. [5] 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/07/30 | 2025/07/31 | 2025/08/01 | 2025/08/04 | 2025/08/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 434.53 | 428.69 | 414.34 | 411.10 | 410.27 | - 0.83 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 487.75 | 482.61 | 469.52 | 468.25 | 460.75 | - 7.50 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | - 3.60 | - 3.65 | - 3.46 | - 3.60 | - 2.71 | 0.89 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 684.88 | 682.28 | 652.93 | 657.77 | 643.09 | - 14.68 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 197.13 | - 199.67 | - 183.41 | - 189.52 | - 182.34 | 7.18 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 20.92 | 21.36 | 20.50 | 21.94 | 21.15 | - 0.79 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 53.22 | 53.92 | 55.18 | 57.15 | 50.48 | - 6.67 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Futures | Type | 2025/07/30 | 2025/07/31 | 2025/08/01 | 2025/08/04 | 2025/08/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | 418.67 | 416.80 | 420.12 | 409.04 | 412.02 | 2.98 | | 180cst M1 | 432.08 | 430.45 | 431.52 | 421.10 | 423.02 | 1.92 | | VLSFO M1 | 511.11 | 509.36 | 501.95 | 496.52 | 496.29 | - 0.23 | | GO M1 | 91.77 | 92.54 | 89.91 | 86.95 | 86.57 | - 0.38 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | - 5.85 | - 6.76 | - 4.72 | - 4.02 | - 3.02 | 1.00 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 167.99 | - 175.44 | - 163.38 | - 146.91 | - 144.33 | 2.58 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | 2025/07/30 | 2025/07/31 | 2025/08/01 | 2025/08/04 | 2025/08/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 412.27 | 411.50 | 412.35 | 404.22 | 407.94 | 3.72 | | FOB VLSFO | 514.85 | 511.91 | 504.71 | 499.61 | 499.20 | - 0.41 | | 380 Basis | - 6.30 | - 6.25 | - 5.95 | - 4.30 | - 3.70 | 0.60 | | High - sulfur Internal - external Spread | - 7.9 | - 9.2 | 0.0 | - 1.7 | 0.5 | 2.2 | | Low - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 10.2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 2.0 | [3] Domestic FU | Type | 2025/07/30 | 2025/07/31 | 2025/08/01 | 2025/08/04 | 2025/08/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2965 | 2953 | 2946 | 2870 | 2852 | - 18 | | FU 05 | 2912 | 2909 | 2906 | 2845 | 2819 | - 26 | | FU 09 | 2956 | 2933 | 2916 | 2846 | 2842 | - 4 | | FU 01 - 05 | 53 | 44 | 40 | 25 | 33 | 8 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 44 | - 24 | - 10 | - 1 | - 23 | - 22 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 9 | - 20 | - 30 | - 24 | - 10 | 14 | [3] Domestic LU | Type | 2025/07/30 | 2025/07/31 | 2025/08/01 | 2025/08/04 | 2025/08/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3652 | 3628 | 3607 | 3523 | 3508 | - 15 | | LU 05 | 3614 | 3593 | 3553 | 3470 | 3453 | -