2025-08-06原油早报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight crude oil prices remained low. Trump's statement on sanctions against Russia will be decided after the envoy's meeting with Russian officials. The threat to India has not completely deterred India's purchases, and the oil price has shed its previous premium due to eased sentiment. Although the API inventory has significantly decreased, it has not significantly boosted the oil price. The market is waiting for more decisions on sanctions against Russia and the upcoming implementation of comprehensive reciprocal tariffs. The oil price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term, with a short - term range of 500 - 508, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - Trump will "significantly" increase the tariffs on goods imported from India from the current 25% within the next 24 hours and will decide whether to sanction countries that purchase Russian oil after the US - Russia official meeting on Wednesday. Fed's Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and two interest rate cuts this year are still an appropriate adjustment, but it's also possible that there won't be two cuts, and more cuts are more likely. The base difference shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels in the week ending August 1st, while the EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels in the week ending July 25th. As of August 5th, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.249 million barrels. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. As of July 29th, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3] 3.2 Recent News - The Kremlin is considering making concessions to Trump, possibly including an air cease - fire agreement with Ukraine to avoid "secondary sanctions." Trump threatened to impose heavy taxes on countries like India that purchase Russian oil and other commodities from Friday. The US trade deficit narrowed by 16.0% to $60.2 billion in June, and the trade deficit with China shrank to the lowest in 21 years. In July, the US service - sector business activity was basically flat, orders hardly changed, employment weakened further, and input costs rose at the largest rate in nearly three years [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6] - Likely to be Bearish: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US has a tense trade relationship with other economies [6] - Market Drivers: Geopolitical conflicts are likely to drive up prices in the short term, and the market is waiting for the peak summer demand season in the long term [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude decreased by - 1.63%, - 1.70%, - 1.49%, and - 1.12% respectively [7] - Spot Quotes: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude decreased by - 2.14%, - 1.70%, - 0.81%, - 0.36%, and - 1.36% respectively [9] - Inventory Data: The API inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels in the week ending August 1st. The EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels in the week ending July 25th, and the inventory in the Cushing area increased by 690,000 barrels in the same week [3] 3.5 Position Data - As of July 29th, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased, with an increase of 2,692 for WTI and 33,959 for Brent [3][18][19]