原油成品油早报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - This week, oil prices rose and then fell, with the month spreads of the three major crude oil markets increasing. Trump issued a secondary tariff warning to Russia. If Russia does not agree to a major peace agreement with Ukraine, a 100% tariff will be imposed on countries buying Russian oil, which makes the market worried about a decline in global crude oil supply. Although Russian crude oil exports have decreased, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the oversupply pattern. The market tends to think that the near - end month spreads will strengthen, and take a wait - and - see attitude towards medium - term absolute prices. [6] - OPEC decided to increase the oil production increase in September and implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day starting from September. With OPEC's "guaranteed production commitment", oil prices dropped rapidly, and Brent crude oil fell below the $70 per barrel mark. [6] - Macroscopically, Trump postponed the effective time of the 15% - 41% reciprocal tariffs on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners by one week, giving countries a window period for negotiation. The July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, the market employment deteriorated, and the market urgently bet on a rate cut in September. [6] - Fundamentally, global oil stocks decreased slightly this week, about 2% higher than the same period last year. US commercial inventories increased significantly, the number of oil rigs decreased again, gasoline stocks decreased while diesel stocks increased. Global refinery profits declined this week, and the refinery operation is coming to an end. The absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall after OPEC+'s statement, but there is still support in reality. It is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From July 30 to August 5, 2025, WTI crude oil price dropped from $70.00 to $65.16, a decrease of $4.84; BRENT crude oil price dropped from $73.24 to $67.64, a decrease of $5.60; DUBAI crude oil price dropped from $70.85 to $69.56, a decrease of $1.29. [3] - During the same period, SC decreased by 5.50, OMAN decreased by 1.28, domestic gasoline decreased by 60.00, and Japan naphtha CFR decreased by 7.61. [3][14] 2. Daily News - Trump is preparing to impose new sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet. He will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries buying Russian energy after the meeting with Russia on Wednesday. There is a high possibility of imposing a 100% oil tariff on Russia, but the result is undetermined. [3][4] - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 1 was - 4.233 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.845 million barrels and a previous value of 1.539 million barrels. [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day. [5] - In the same week, US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week; commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 1.84%. [5][6][16] - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.55%. [16]