Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and commodities. It provides market trends, fundamental analysis, and operation suggestions for each sector, highlighting the impact of macro - events, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes on market prices. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: On Tuesday, global equity markets heated up, with A - shares rising. The four major stock index futures contracts all increased, and the basis of the main contracts was seasonally repaired. With the release of policies and the results of Sino - US negotiations, it is advisable to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6300 and hold a moderately bullish view [2][3][5]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The treasury bond futures closed with a narrow - range shock, mostly rising. Although the central bank's open - market operations turned to net withdrawal, the inter - bank market funds remained abundant. It is expected that treasury bond futures will oscillate upward in early August, and it is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to July economic data [6][7][8]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: The uncertainty of US economic and trade policies has increased market concerns. Gold rebounded after hitting a low, and silver also rose. In August, trade agreements may put pressure on prices, but the deterioration of US economic data in July boosts the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. Gold should be held long above $3300, and silver should be bought at low levels [9][11][12]. Shipping Futures - Container Shipping Futures: The container shipping futures are in a stage of slow decline in spot prices and lack of strong fundamental drivers. The 10 - contract price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a bottom around 1250 points. It is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts on rallies [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The spot price rose, but the downstream purchasing willingness weakened. The macro - level has no clear bullish drivers, and the supply - demand relationship is weak during the off - season. Copper prices are expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77000 - 79000 [16][18][20]. - Alumina: The spot price remained stable, and the warehouse receipt volume increased. The market is expected to be in a slight surplus in the medium term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the medium term, with the main contract running in the range of 3000 - 3400 [20][21][22]. - Aluminum: The spot price increased slightly, and the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is strong. Affected by macro factors and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract referring to 20000 - 21000 [22][24][25]. - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price rose, and the terminal consumption in the off - season was weak, with the social inventory close to full capacity. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract referring to 19200 - 20200 [25][26][27]. - Zinc: The spot price increased, and the supply was relatively loose while the demand was weak. The zinc price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract referring to 22000 - 23000 [27][29][31]. - Tin: The spot price rose, and the trading was light. The supply of tin ore is tense, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore in August, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [31][32][34]. - Nickel: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was stable. The supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, and the price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118000 - 126000 [34][35][36]. - Stainless Steel: The spot price was stable, and the market purchasing was weak. Affected by policies and macro - emotions, the price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract running in the range of 12600 - 13200 [37][38][40]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot price fell slightly, and the market was affected by news. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely around 65,000 - 70,000. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously [41][42][44]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The spot price rose, and the cost increased while the profit of steel mills improved. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the off - season, and the inventory pressure is not large. It is expected that steel prices will be supported, and it is advisable to hold long positions [46][47][48]. - Iron Ore: The spot price increased, and the futures price also rose. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the price is expected to follow steel prices. It is advisable to go long on dips and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [49][50][51]. - Coking Coal: The futures price rebounded after hitting a low, and the spot price increased. The supply is tight, and the demand is stable. It is expected that the price will rise, and it is advisable to go long on dips and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [52][53][55]. - Coke: The futures price rose strongly, and the fifth - round price increase of coke was implemented. The supply is difficult to increase, and the demand is supported. There is an expectation of a sixth - round price increase, and it is advisable to go long on dips and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [56][57][59]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The spot price of soybean meal fluctuated, and the price of rapeseed meal increased. The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses prices, but concerns about imports support the domestic soybean meal spot. It is advisable to hold long positions in the 2601 contract of soybean meal [60][61][62]. - Live Pigs: The spot price fluctuated at a low level, and the supply and demand are weak. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and it is not advisable to blindly short the far - month 01 contract [63][64]. - Corn: The spot price fell, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - long term, and the price is expected to decline, with a slow decline in the short term [65][66][67]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price is also at the bottom. The global sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic supply is expected to be marginally loose. It is advisable to maintain a bearish view [68].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250806
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-06 04:28