Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has loosened. The futures and mainstream supply prices of cis - butadiene rubber have both risen rapidly and then fallen back. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is negative. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. With short - term shutdown and maintenance expected for some plants and a possible restart of others, supply is expected to decrease slightly. However, due to weak demand expectations, production enterprise inventories may still increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, with limited upward space. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2509 contract is expected to be between 11,400 - 11,700 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract's open interest is 28,087, a decrease of 2,345. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 现货市场 - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions have increased, with increases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 820 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.12 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 67.64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.63 US dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 65.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.13 US dollars/barrel. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.97%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 10,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.2%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 72.46%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 23,800 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons. The weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 7,520 tons, an increase of 50 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.262 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.523 million pieces, an increase of 108,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.45 days, a decrease of 1.5 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.64 days, a decrease of 0.91 days. As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.98%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 10.19 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 59.26%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 0.20 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber export volume is 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%. From January to June 2025, the total export volume is 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber import volume is 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%. From January to June 2025, the total import volume is 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86% [2].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250806
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-06 09:48