沪铜产业日报-20250806

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated at a low level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The cost - support logic of tight copper ore supply for copper prices remains. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down to some extent, while the demand is in the off - season but the consumption expectation is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,280 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,679 dollars/ton, up 40.5 dollars. The spread between the main contracts of different months was - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 158,574 lots, down 1,292 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was 3,729 lots, up 3,435 lots. The LME copper inventory was 153,850 tons, up 14,275 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper was 72,543 tons, down 880 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 12,000 tons, down 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 20,346 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper was 78,350 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper was 78,360 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 58 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 45.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 70 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 67.32 dollars/ton, down 14.59 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 42.09 dollars/kiloton, up 0.54 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,000 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,700 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 480,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 0 yuan/ton, down 55,090 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,300 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 1.185 billion tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.1%, down 1.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.11%, down 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.05%, down 0.0046 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.19, up 0.0229 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US trade deficit in goods and services in June shrank by 16% month - on - month to $60.2 billion, the lowest since September 2023. The total import value decreased by 3.7%, and consumer goods imports dropped to the lowest since September 2020 [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank encourage long - term funds to focus on future - oriented industries and strengthen medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction [2]. - The Passenger Car Association raised the full - year sales forecast for 2025, expecting 24.35 million passenger car retail sales, a 6% year - on - year increase [2]. - The State Council executive meeting proposed consumer and service - industry loan discount policies, and major banks have responded positively. At least three regions have implemented consumer loan discount policies with a discount rate of about 1.5% [2]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the logistics industry prosperity index in July was 50.5%, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month, indicating that the logistics business volume continued to expand but at a slower pace [2].