Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has been decreasing recently, with both bonded and general trade inventories showing a downward trend. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage remain low, with the overall inbound rate declining month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire companies to replenish at low prices, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month. [2] - In terms of demand, the overall production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly last week due to maintenance in some enterprises, and the overall production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires also declined. This week, the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises will boost the production capacity utilization rate, but due to new maintenance arrangements in some enterprises, the overall production capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, with limited room for improvement. [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,600 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,495 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread is - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,175 yuan/ton, up 930 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 105,295 lots, up 35,859 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 28,101 lots, down 3,264 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,155 lots, up 1,246 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,110 lots, up 209 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 176,470 tons, down 40 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 42,034 tons, up 303 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,770 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,770 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,320 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,270 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 995 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,140 yuan/ton, down 875 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,596 yuan/ton, up 173 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 276 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 147 US dollars/ton, up 6.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 46.6 US dollars/ton, up 11.4 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, down 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, up 5.85 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.64 days, down 0.91 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.36%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.2%, down 0.03 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 27.74%, down 0.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 27.74%, down 0.39 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From August 3rd to August 9th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, most areas had low precipitation, reducing the impact on rubber tapping; in the southern hemisphere, the rainfall in most areas was moderate, increasing the impact on rubber tapping. [2] - As of August 3rd, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, down 0.86 million tons, a decrease of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a decrease of 0.40%; the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 1.47%. [2] - As of July 31st, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, down 0.08 percentage points month - on - month and 10.19 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, down 2.97 percentage points month - on - month and 0.20 percentage points year - on - year. [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250806
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-06 09:49