瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250806

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Wednesday, the I2509 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, former US President Trump criticized Powell again for delaying interest - rate cuts and said a new Fed chair might be announced soon. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased, and domestic port inventories declined. Hot metal production decreased but remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, iron ore still has demand support, but there is technical pressure around 800, and the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 794.50 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan; the position volume was 358,293 lots, down 26,208 lots. - The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 17 yuan/ton, down 3.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 11,536 lots, up 4,646 lots. - The DCE warehouse receipts of I were 3,900 lots, up 300 lots. - The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 101.95 US dollars/ton, down 0.52 US dollars [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 842 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 828 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 717 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 34 yuan, down 3 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 101.65 US dollars/ton, up 1.05 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.34, up 0.02. - The estimated import cost was 835 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,061.80 million tons, down 139.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,622.40 million tons, up 302.70 million tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,222.01 million tons, down 173.67 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,012.09 million tons, up 126.87 million tons. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 24 days, up 1 day. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.09 million tons, down 2.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.32%, down 2.36 percentage points. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.00 million tons, down 2.90 million tons. The BDI index was 1,921.00, down 49.00. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.64 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.65 US dollars/ton, down 0.61 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 22.70%, up 0.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.95%, down 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.42%, up 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.77%, down 0.19 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of Monday (August 4), the total port inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14,310.97 million tons, an increase of 29.24 million tons compared with the previous Monday. - From July 28 to August 3, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,284.0 million tons, a decrease of 70.9 million tons compared with the previous period. The inventory continued to decline, and the current absolute inventory is at a relatively low level since the third quarter [2].