瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250806

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - nickel resource supply cost is increased due to the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory is decreasing with tight raw materials. The overall refined nickel production increased slightly as some smelters' output rose and new capacity is planned. Stainless steel mills cut production due to profit compression, while new - energy vehicle production and sales climbed but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, nickel prices dropped, downstream buyers made low - price purchases, domestic social inventory decreased, and overseas LME inventory increased. The market is expected to have short - term volatile adjustments, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel was 121,070 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai nickel was - 280 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME 3 - month nickel price was 15,055 dollars/ton, down 50 dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai nickel was 86,052 lots, down 4,491 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel was - 22,809 lots, down 1,023 lots; LME nickel inventory was 211,254 tons, up 2,172 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,750 tons, up 299 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel was 20,789 tons, down 134 tons [2]. 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price was 122,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River was 122,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 1,030 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 205.64 dollars/ton, down 4.9 dollars [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 4.3466 million tons, up 419,400 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 9.9436 million tons, up 64,900 tons; the average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 65.84 dollars/ton, down 7.57 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production was 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production was 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 1.0414 million tons, up 193,200 tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.744 million tons, down 40,700 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 608,000 tons, up 2,300 tons [2]. 6. Industry News - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, may choose the chairman through the vacancy, and will announce drug and chip tariffs and significantly increase Indian tariffs within a week. The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. The US 7 - month ISM services PMI was only 50.1, with the employment index shrinking and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022. Goldman Sachs and Citi said that if the non - agricultural situation does not worsen, the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, with the interest - rate end - point at 3% or lower. The central bank and six other departments will support new - type industrialization with finance and strengthen medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction [2].