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瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250806
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-06 10:03

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 6, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1221.0, up 6.45%. With the rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, market sentiment fluctuates. Fundamentally, mine - end inventories generally decline, clean coal inventories transfer from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and bullish trend [2]. - On August 6, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1644.5, up 1.95%. The fifth round of price increase has been implemented. Affected by high temperatures, the national power grid's power consumption load hit a new high for the third time on August 4. Fundamentally, raw - material inventories rise. The current hot - metal output is 242.23 tons, down 1.52 tons. The coal - mine end inventory has no pressure, and the inventory transfers downstream. The total coking - coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 45 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and strong trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Coking Coal: The closing price of the JM main contract is 1221.00 yuan/ton, up 39.00; the trading volume is 862415.00 hands, up 57495.00; the net position of the top 20 contracts is - 94717.00 hands, up 12500.00; the spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts is 147.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of coking - coal warehouse receipts is 0.00, unchanged; the basis of the JM main contract is 179.00 yuan/ton, down 39.00 [2]. - Coke: The closing price of the J main contract is 1644.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00; the trading volume is 52939.00 hands, up 201.00; the net position of the top 20 contracts is - 7460.00 hands, down 258.00; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts is 88.00 yuan/ton, up 14.50; the number of coke warehouse receipts is 800.00, up 40.00; the basis of the J main contract is 20.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 [2]. Spot Market - Coking Coal: The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal is 930.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00; the price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) is 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port is 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi is 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Coke: The price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke is 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Coking Coal: The raw - coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants is 277.10 million tons, down 15.43; the clean - coal inventory is 166.39 million tons, down 9.23; the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants is 61.51%, down 0.80; the raw - coal output is 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00; the import volume of coal and lignite is 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 193.60 million tons, down 1.20; the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 493.94 million tons, down 18.10; the total inventory of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises is 992.73 million tons, up 7.35; the inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills across the country is 803.79 million tons, up 4.28; the available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises is 12.87 days, up 0.12; the import volume of coking coal is 910.84 million tons, up 172.10; the output of coking coal is 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 [2]. - Coke: The inventory of coke at 18 ports is 270.90 million tons, up 20.57; the inventory of coke in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises is 73.62 million tons, down 6.50; the inventory of coke in 247 steel - mill samples across the country is 626.69 million tons, down 13.29; the available days of coke in 247 steel - mill samples is 11.17 days, down 0.28; the export volume of coke and semi - coke is 51.00 million tons, down 17.00; the output of coke is 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of independent coking enterprises is 73.69%, up 0.24; the profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is - 45.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills across the country is 83.48%, unchanged; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.22%, down 0.56; the crude - steel output is 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 [2]. Industry News - On July 30, the 11th council (expanded) meeting of the sixth session of the China Iron and Steel Industry Association was held in Beijing, focusing on "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation" [2]. - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Gradually Implementing Free Preschool Education", exempting the tuition fees of children in public kindergartens for the first year of preschool education from the fall semester of 2025 [2]. - The latest meeting minutes of the Bank of Japan show that if economic growth and inflation continue as expected, the bank will further raise interest rates [2]. - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup suggest that if the non - farm payrolls worsen, the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, with the terminal interest rate at 3% or lower [2]. - The Fed indicates that the proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US in Q2 has reached the highest level since the pandemic [2].