软商品日报-20250806

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Sugar: The sugar market is under pressure due to the expected increase in imported sugar arrivals and the global supply surplus. StoneX predicts a 304 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. However, the low domestic industrial inventory provides some support, but the price advantage of processed sugar continues the weak trend [3]. - Cotton: The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts. The expectation of tight supply and demand at the end of the domestic cotton year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may enter a volatile pattern [13]. - Jujube: Due to the rapid weather changes in the production areas, there are still differences in the market's view of the new - season jujube production. Jujube prices may fluctuate in the short term. With sufficient supply of old jujubes, jujube prices will face pressure if there are no major problems with the weather in the production areas [19]. - Apple: Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. In Shandong, the number of apple packages is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of Qinyang apples are the same as last year, but the prices have recently declined to varying degrees [23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Spot Price: The spot price in Kunming dropped by 20 yuan to 5,800 yuan/ton [3]. - Futures Prices: On August 6, 2025, SR01 closed at 5,628 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.18% and a weekly decline of 0.67%. Other contracts also showed different degrees of decline [4]. - Price Spreads: The price spreads between different sugar futures contracts showed various changes. For example, SR01 - 05 was 64 yuan, up 2 yuan from the previous day and 3 yuan from the previous week [4]. - Basis: The basis of Nanning - SR01 was 392 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous day but up 73 yuan from the previous week. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 227 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous day and up 43 yuan from the previous week [8]. - Import Prices: The quota - within import price of Brazilian sugar was 4,433 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day but down 61 yuan from the previous week. The quota - above import price was 5,630 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and down 80 yuan from the previous week [11]. Cotton - Futures Prices: On August 6, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13,850 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a 0.22% increase; cotton 05 closed at 13,805 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a 0.22% increase; cotton 09 closed at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan with a 0.26% increase [14]. - Price Spreads: The cotton 01 - 05 spread was 45 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the cotton 05 - 09 spread was 120 yuan, up 35 yuan from the previous day [15]. - Basis: The cotton basis was 1,514 yuan, up 36 yuan from the previous day [15]. Jujube - Market trend: The jujube price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the growth of grey jujubes. With sufficient supply of old jujubes, prices will face pressure if there are no major weather problems in the production areas [19]. Apple - Futures Prices: On August 6, 2025, AP01 closed at 7,854 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day and 0.50% from the previous week [24]. - Spot Prices: The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.8 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [24]. - Price Spreads: The AP01 - 05 spread was - 65 yuan, down 30.85% from the previous day and up 20.37% from the previous week [24].