油脂油料产业日报-20250806

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from production growth, oscillating around the annual line of 4,250 ringgit. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stand above 4,250 ringgit for upward movement; otherwise, it may fall below the annual - line support and decline to 4,000 ringgit [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in high - level consolidation, influenced by the adjustment of Malaysian palm oil. They are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 9,000 yuan, as well as the gains and losses near the 20 - day moving average and whether Malaysian palm oil can stand above 4,250 ringgit [3]. Soybean Oil - Factory sales have improved recently as some market participants are bullish. Although the factory's soybean oil inventory is still increasing, terminal demand is expected to improve due to the start of universities and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, so the inventory may decrease in the second half of the month. Soybean oil has a price advantage over palm oil and rapeseed oil, which supports the basis quote, and the basis quote is bullish in the long - term [4]. Bean Meal - Argentina's bean meal purchases have limited impact on the market. Due to the tight supply expected in the fourth quarter, oil mills are accelerating South American purchases, pushing up the premiums in Brazil and Argentina. The price of the Lianbo 09 contract will end in oscillation, while the upward momentum of the Lianbo 01 contract is stable, with attention on the resistance at 3,100 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton in the short term [15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - P 1 - 5 is 212 yuan/ton, up 18; Y - P 01 is - 724 yuan/ton, down 106; other spreads are also presented in the table [5]. Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm oil 01 is 8,986 yuan/ton, down 0.64%; BMD palm oil main contract is 4,249 ringgit/ton, down 0.96%; other prices and spreads are also provided [6]. Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean oil 01 is 8,380 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 53.38 cents/pound, down 1.18%; other prices and spreads are also given [11]. Oilseeds Futures Prices - Bean meal 01 closes at 3,072, up 7 (0.23%); bean meal 05 closes at 2,762, up 11 (0.4%); other futures prices are also listed [16]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05 is 310, down 4; RM01 - 05 is 61, up 9; other spreads are also presented [17].