建信期货多晶硅日报-20250807

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The polysilicon market has multiple contracts running strongly, but the price increase in the industrial chain has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. The supply and demand are generally in a loose pattern, and the price is mainly in a wide - range oscillation [4] Group 4: Market Performance - The PS2509 contract of polysilicon closed at 51,345 yuan/ton, with a 3.23% increase, a trading volume of 420,201 lots, and an open interest of 138,396 lots, with a net increase of 10,809 lots [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - Polysilicon is supported by comprehensive costs and spot prices, but the price increase in the industrial chain has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. In August, the polysilicon production schedule increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. Since June, the terminal demand has declined, and the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells has dropped to about 52GW. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the policy has entered the implementation stage, cooling the market sentiment. The price will generally remain in a wide - range oscillation [4] Group 6: Market News - On August 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,120 lots, a net increase of 250 from the previous trading day [5] - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5] - On August 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025, requiring local departments to standardize supervision procedures and report results by September 30, 2025 [5] - In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]