建信期货原油日报-20250807

Report Overview - Report Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Crude Oil [1] Report Core Viewpoint - API data shows that as of the week ending on the 1st, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined, but diesel inventories still face some pressure. Coupled with an unfavorable macro - environment, oil prices continued to adjust. OPEC+ announced a production increase of 550,000 barrels per day as expected, while the significant downward revision of U.S. non - farm payrolls data triggered market panic about a U.S. recession, causing oil prices to fall continuously. Fundamentally, OPEC+ and U.S. production growth is relatively limited, and in the peak demand season, actual demand is slightly lower than expected, with the overall fundamentals being neutral. Oil prices are mainly driven by macro - level tariffs, sanctions, and geopolitical situations. In the medium term, as demand enters the off - season, oil prices may decline again. Due to the fermentation of macro - level negative sentiment, it is advisable to consider short positions after a rebound [6][7] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: WTI's opening price was $66.21, closing at $65.17, with a high of $66.39, a low of $65.03, a decline of 1.69%, and a trading volume of 25.59 million lots. Brent's opening price was $68.75, closing at $67.68, with a high of $68.87, a low of $67.52, a decline of 1.57%, and a trading volume of 33.48 million lots. SC's opening price was 504.5 yuan/barrel, closing at 505.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 506.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 501.0 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.63%, and a trading volume of 11.07 million lots [6] - Analysis and Suggestions: API data shows that as of the week ending on the 1st, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined, but diesel inventories still face some pressure. OPEC+ announced a production increase of 550,000 barrels per day as expected, and the significant downward revision of U.S. non - farm payrolls data triggered market panic about a U.S. recession, causing oil prices to fall continuously. Fundamentally, OPEC+ and U.S. production growth is relatively limited, and in the peak demand season, actual demand is slightly lower than expected, with the overall fundamentals being neutral. Oil prices are mainly driven by macro - level factors. In the medium term, as demand enters the off - season, oil prices may decline again. Due to the fermentation of macro - level negative sentiment, it is advisable to consider short positions after a rebound [6][7] 2. Industry News - Saudi Aramco CEO expects this year's oil demand to increase by 1.1 million to 1.3 million barrels per day, approaching the upper end of the range [8] - Russia's oil revenue in July decreased by one - third due to weak oil prices and a strong ruble [8] - Trump said that if energy prices drop low enough, Putin will stop the conflict and he is not worried about oil prices currently [8] - U.S. President Trump is preparing new sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet [8] - Sources said that Chevron and Valero in the U.S. are negotiating to resume the supply agreement for Venezuelan oil [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent prices, WTI and Oman spot prices, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources from Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, EIA, etc. [10][12][20]