Group 1: Report Basic Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 07, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 6th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line at the end of the session. The highest was 14,060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,010 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,326 lots to 177,238 lots [8]. - Spot: On the 6th, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 13.89 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. Market Analysis - Demand Side: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, slaughterhouse orders are average, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses remain low. On August 6th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 135,500 heads, 700 heads less than the previous day and 1,500 heads less than a week ago [9]. - Supply Side: In August, the slaughter volume of the breeding side may increase month - on - month. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm for slaughter on the breeding side was relatively high, and the slaughter progress was fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties remained high, and there were still secondary fattening pigs to be released, so the slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuated slightly [9]. Market Outlook - Spot: In August, with the increase in slaughter on the breeding side and the current good enthusiasm for slaughter, while demand is in the off - season, the supply - demand relationship remains relatively loose, and the spot price of live pigs may continue to be under pressure [9]. - Futures: Currently, the near - month 2509 contract of futures follows the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term and far - month, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak - demand contracts, and the demand increase is relatively large, so the price performance may fluctuate strongly. The domestic anti - involution initiative, high - quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts in some regions are beneficial to the medium - to - long - term pig price performance. Attention should be paid to the impact of later policies on production capacity [9]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 31st, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [10][12]. Group 4: Data Overview - On the week of July 31st, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 527 yuan/head, 15 yuan/head lower than the previous week [18]. - According to the statistics of Yongyi Consulting, the average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses on the week of July 31st was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99% [18]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads, an increase of 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month increase or decrease rates were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [18]. - As of the week of July 31st, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.98 kg, a decrease of 0.5 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39% [18].
建信期货生猪日报-20250807
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-07 01:44