Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. Domestic fundamentals are loose, and domestic oil and fat supplies are stable. The 2024/2025 USDA South American production forecast is high, Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. Domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and import inventories are stable. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventories decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, entering the production season, palm oil supply will increase. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,472, with a basis of 66, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, compared with 860,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased. [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650. [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the production season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,022, with a basis of 52, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, compared with 390,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200. [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the production season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,678, with a basis of 116, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, compared with 630,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose. [5] Supply - Imported Soybean Inventory: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [6] - Soybean Oil Inventory: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [7] - Soybean Meal Inventory: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [9] - Oil Mill Soybean Crushing: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [11] - Palm Oil Inventory: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [17] - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [19] - Rapeseed Inventory: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [21] - Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [23] Demand - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [13] - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [15]
大越期货油脂早报-20250807
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-07 01:52