大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - PTA: Recently, the macro atmosphere has cooled, commodities have corrected, and the cost - end support is insufficient. The downstream terminal is in the off - season with weak demand. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market has sufficient liquidity and lacks upward drivers. However, as the basis weakens, the buying sentiment of traders has slightly recovered, and the downward space is limited. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200 this week, and attention should be paid to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival of foreign MEG vessels is relatively concentrated, and the visible inventory is expected to increase periodically. In August, the MEG fundamentals are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the increase in domestic output is delayed. It is expected that MEG will be mainly in a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, and attention should be paid to the cost - end and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No relevant information provided. 2.每日提示 - PTA: - Fundamentals: The news of Ineos reducing its load during the day boosted the market, and combined with the warming of the commodity atmosphere, the PTA futures market rose rapidly and finally closed up in a volatile manner. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, the spot basis was weak, and a small number of polyester factories made bids. The mainstream suppliers offered August goods. There were transactions at a discount of 20 - 25 to the 09 contract for the middle and early August, and at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract for the late August, with the price negotiation range around 4650 - 4720. The suppliers' August goods were traded at a discount of 20 to the 09 contract. The goods in mid - September were traded at a premium of 0 to the 09 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is at a discount of 21 to the 09 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4675, the basis of the 09 contract is - 49, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main positions: Net short positions, and short positions increased [6]. - MEG: - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol remained firm at a high level, and the market transactions were okay. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and consolidated. The spot negotiation was at a premium of 78 - 81 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol market was strong. Traders in the market actively participated in contract replenishment. In the afternoon, the basis of the far - month futures weakened. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market rose slightly. The mainstream negotiation of recent shipments was at 525 - 530 US dollars/ton, and the shipments during the day were traded at around 526 - 529 US dollars/ton. The inquiry intention in the market was okay. The Taiwan tender goods were traded at around 532 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 3000 tons [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4493, the basis of the 09 contract is 79, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main positions: The main net short positions, and short positions decreased [7]. 3.今日关注 No relevant information provided. 4.基本面数据 - PTA supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. 5.影响因素总结 - Bullish factors: Some PTA devices are planned to be overhauled in August, and the supply - demand expectation is improved [8]. - Bearish factors: From the demand side, at the end of the export rush + domestic off - season, the downward trend of terminal demand is certain [8]. 6.当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the market rebounds [9].