沪锌期货早报-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more short - position reductions. The market is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term. The price is above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising and operating in the weak zone, while the trend indicator is declining, with the dominance of the long - side weakening. The Shanghai zinc ZN2509 is expected to be in a volatile consolidation state [22] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc mine production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2] - The basis is - 10 (spot price is 22,370), indicating a neutral situation [2] - On August 6, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,050 tons to 89,225 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 432 tons to 14,375 tons, which is a bullish factor [2] - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a neutral situation [2] - The main positions are net short, and short positions increased, which is a bearish factor [2] 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on August 6 - For the zinc futures of different delivery months, details such as previous settlement price, today's opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, and open interest changes are provided. For example, for the 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 22,315, today's opening price was 22,360, the highest price was 22,415, the lowest price was 22,250, the closing price was 22,380, the settlement reference price was 22,330, the price change was 15, the trading volume was 69,568 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4,218 lots [3] 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on August 6 - Prices and price changes of various zinc - related products are provided, including zinc concentrate (price: 17,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton), zinc ingot (price: 22,370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton), galvanized sheet (price: 4,088 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton), galvanized pipe (price: 4,494 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton), zinc alloy (price: 22,880 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton), zinc powder (price: 27,410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton), zinc oxide (price: 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged), and secondary zinc oxide (price: 7,742 yuan/ton, unchanged) [4] 4. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 24 - August 4, 2025) - Inventory data of zinc ingots in major markets such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu are provided. For example, on July 24, the total inventory was 80,800 tons, and on August 4, it was 87,200 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons compared to July 28 and 2,800 tons compared to July 31 [5] 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on August 6 - Details of zinc warrants in different regions and warehouses are provided. The total zinc warrants decreased by 432 tons to 14,375 tons, with significant changes in Tianjin (e.g., the inventory of Zhongchu Xinang increased by 696 tons, and the inventory of Shanggang Yuncang Tianjin decreased by 1,128 tons) [7] 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 6 - The LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,050 tons to 89,225 tons [8] 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 6 - Zinc concentrate prices in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, Kunming, etc. are provided. Most regions had a price of 17,040 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 30 yuan/ton [10] 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 6 - Prices and price changes of zinc ingots from different smelters are provided. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhoucheng was 22,690 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [14] 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons [16] 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 6 - Processing fees for zinc concentrates in different regions and for imports are provided. For example, in HIT HA, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and for imported 48% grade zinc concentrate, it was 70 US dollars/dry ton [18] 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on August 6 - For the zn2509 contract, details of the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume rankings of different futures companies, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day, are provided. For example, Guotai Junan had a trading volume of 34,093 lots, a decrease of 1,385 lots; CITIC Futures had a long - position volume of 8,565 lots, a decrease of 527 lots, and a short - position volume of 8,574 lots, a decrease of 1,110 lots [20]