大越期货天胶早报-20250807

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Natural Rubber Morning Report dated August 7, 2025, prepared by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The market is dominated by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral with supply increasing, spot being strong, and domestic inventories starting to rise. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The basis is - 995 with a spot price of 14500, which is bearish. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao's inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, showing a neutral situation. The price is running below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, also neutral. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. The market is sentiment - driven for short - term trading [6] Fundamentals Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high. Tire production is at a record high for the same period, but tire industry exports are falling [6][8][31] - Price: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 6, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also mentioned [10] - Inventory: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [16][19] - Import: Import volume has seasonally declined [22] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise: Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is anti - involution in the domestic market [8] - Likely to Fall: Supply is increasing, and Qingdao area inventory has not seasonally decreased [8] Basis - The spot price is 14500, and the basis is - 995, which is bearish [6]