大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of complex supply - demand balance. The overall supply is relatively high, and the demand is gradually strengthening. The cost of different raw materials varies, and the profitability also shows differences. The market is expected to shift towards demand - led in the future, with the lithium carbonate 2511 contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 67,980 - 71,260 [8]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 7.31% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 1.08% day - on - day, with a profit of 2,248 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica decreased by 0.61% day - on - day, with a loss of 6,781 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production scheduling enthusiasm is average [8]. - Basis: On August 6th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,330 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory decreased by 1.00% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters decreased by 6.18% week - on - week, while the downstream inventory increased by 7.18% week - on - week [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main position increased, showing a bearish situation [8]. - Expectation: In the future, supply is expected to increase, with production and imports expected to rise. Demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The supply - demand pattern will shift towards demand - led, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 67,980 - 71,260 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - Lithium Ore: The price of 6% lithium spodumene decreased by 1.58% to 748 US dollars/ton, and the price of 2.5% lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.17% to 1,690 yuan/ton [14]. - Lithium Compounds: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.35% to 70,950 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.36% to 68,850 yuan/ton [14]. - Positive and Negative Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness to take delivery at the power battery end [9][10]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium Ore: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25% to 427,626 tons, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 16.31% to 17,697.62 tons [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly production decreased by 1.01% to 141,726 tons, and the monthly production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons [17]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The monthly production increased by 2.94% to 25,170 tons, and the monthly net export volume increased by 0.73% to 4,777.73 tons [17]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - Lithium Batteries: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 9.70% to 252,200 tons, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate lithium batteries increased by 1.86% to 290,700 tons [17]. - New Energy Vehicles: The monthly production decreased by 0.16% to 1,268,000 vehicles, and the monthly sales increased by 1.68% to 1.329 million vehicles [17].