大越期货菜粕早报-20250807

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as good demand, low oil - mill开机, and low inventory. Although China's tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential. The market will likely return to range - bound trading due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the impact of soybean meal [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market while demand remains strong. - The slightly reduced annual production of Canadian rapeseed supports the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing with uncertain results. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish Factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price and Spread: From July 28 to August 6, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 316 - 381. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract showed a weak oscillation [14][22]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, up 25.83% week - on - week from 1.51 million tons last week and down 44.12% year - on - year from 3.4 million tons in the same period last year. The import volume of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, the inventory of oil - mill rapeseed increased slightly, and the inventory of rapeseed meal remained low [9][27][29]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26]. 5. Position Data - Not provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal showed a pattern of rising and then falling. Good demand and technical consolidation, along with low oil - mill开机 and low inventory, supported the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal entered the peak season, and although the import volume of rapeseed increased, the short - term inventory pressure on oil mills was not significant. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - Basis: The spot price was 2640, with a basis of - 105, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - Inventory: As mentioned above, the inventory situation is favorable [9]. - Market Trend: The price was above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward [9]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - Expectation: In the short term, rapeseed meal rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the price is expected to return to range - bound trading [9].