建信期货铁矿石日评-20250807

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - On August 6, the iron ore futures main contract 2509 oscillated weakly. The subsequent iron ore arrival volume may fluctuate at a moderately low level until mid - August and then rise again. The downstream steel demand shows a seasonal decline, but the iron - water production remains high. The disk price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and it is expected to show a high - level consolidation trend in the short term [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures Market: On August 6, the iron ore futures main 2509 contract oscillated weakly, opening lower, rising during the session, and falling back in the afternoon, closing at 794.5 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The trading volume was 208,804 lots, the open interest was 358,293 lots, a decrease of 26,208 lots, and the capital outflow was 335 million yuan. Other steel futures also had different trends [5][7] - Spot Market: On August 6, the main iron ore outer - market quotes fluctuated from - 0.5 to + 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port fluctuated from - 3 to 0 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a golden cross; the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract narrowed for 2 consecutive trading days [9] 3.2 Industry News - According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in late July, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.78 million tons, a decrease of 880,000 tons or 5.6% from the previous ten - day period; an increase of 2.41 million tons or 19.5% from the beginning of the year; a decrease of 670,000 tons or 4.3% from the same ten - day period of the previous month; a decrease of 1.27 million tons or 7.9% from the same ten - day period of last year; and an increase of 290,000 tons or 2.0% from the same ten - day period of the year before last. The average daily output of crude steel was 1.982 million tons, a decrease of 7.4% from the previous ten - day period; the average daily output of pig iron was 1.856 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% from the previous ten - day period; and the average daily output of steel was 2.091 million tons, an increase of 0.5% from the previous ten - day period [12] 3.3 Market Outlook - Macro - news: Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", aiming to build a mature financial system to support the high - end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry by 2027 [10][11] - Fundamentals: In terms of supply, the recent shipping volume has recovered after a seasonal decline. The current weekly shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is at a medium level. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrival volume may oscillate at a moderately low level until mid - August and then rise again. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand shows a seasonal decline, the iron - water production has decreased slightly, but it is still above 2.4 million tons. Steel enterprises' profitability has increased, and they maintain strong production. The subsequent production - reduction process is expected to be slow, which will support the ore price [11]