沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 沪镍: The external market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, facing significant pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The industry chain presents a situation where ore prices and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, with some quotes rising, but the cost line remains at a low level. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season in July and August, and the inventory of the 300 - series increased slightly this week. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The basis is positive, LME inventory increased, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that Shanghai nickel 2509 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless steel price remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are weakly stable, sea freight rates are firm, and ferronickel prices are weakly stable with some slight increases, but the cost line is still at a low level. Stainless steel consumption has entered the off - season. The basis is positive, the futures warehouse receipts decreased. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. It is expected that stainless steel 2509 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures: On August 6, the price of Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,070, up 160 from the previous day; the price of LME nickel was 15,130, up 75; the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,935, down 25. The nickel index of Wuxi trading center was 121,100, up 700, and the cold - rolled coil index was 12,520, up 20 [12]. - Spot: On August 6, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,100, up 200; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,200, up 200; the price of 1 imported nickel was 121,300, up 200; the price of nickel beans was 123,400, up 200. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [12]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,750 tons, with the futures inventory at 21,374 tons, an increase of 299 tons and a decrease of 573 tons respectively. On August 6, LME nickel inventory was 211,452, an increase of 198; Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,789, a decrease of 134; the total inventory was 232,241, an increase of 64 [14][15]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 1, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,950 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 324,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,111,200 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 676,700 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons. On August 6, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 102,803, a decrease of 62 [19][20]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 6, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12 US dollars per ton, also unchanged. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 918 yuan per nickel point, up 2; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3,400 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [23]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,832, the production cost using scrap steel is 13,477, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel is 16,404 [25]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 122,262 yuan per ton [28]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive factors: The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period and the anti - involution policy [7]. - Negative factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new growth points in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; nickel ore prices and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line remains at a low level; the substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [7].