大越期货纯碱早报-20250807

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of soda ash is strong while the demand is weak. The sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1371 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [6]. - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1320 yuan/ton, up 5.60% [6]. - The main basis was -50 yuan/ton, down 57.63% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1320 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental - Supply - The production profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was -22.90 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was 56.50 yuan/ton, with production profit rebounding from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.27%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash was 69.98 tons, with heavy soda ash at 39.87 tons, at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant capacity expansion and new production plans in the soda ash industry [21]. 3.4 Fundamental - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 109.83% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, and the operating rate stabilized at 75% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [30]. 3.5 Fundamental - Inventory - The national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [2][33]. 3.6 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash from 2017 - 2024E showed that the industry's supply - demand relationship has fluctuated, with capacity, production, and demand all changing [34]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The downstream photovoltaic glass has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3.8 Main Logic and Risk Points - Main Logic: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [5]. - Risk Points: The cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macro - level benefits exceed expectations [5].