大越期货豆粕早报-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound is limited by the good planting weather recently and the bumper harvest in South America. In China, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans also affects the domestic soybean meal market. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040 [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a range - bound situation. The bottom of the domestic soybean futures is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but the rebound is restricted by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4060 and 4160 [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean futures are oscillating around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean planting, growth, import arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a high level in July, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continued to rise. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillating pattern due to the critical period of US soybean weather and China - US trade negotiations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. However, the recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price, and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations also makes the soybean meal market return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The continuous rise of domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the variables in the China - US tariff war make the soybean meal market maintain short - term oscillations, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of domestic imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2910, with a basis of - 116, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 104.31 tons, a 4.48% increase from last week and a 22.5% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4300, with a basis of 182, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 645.59 tons, a 0.52% increase from last week and a 5.08% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The long positions of the main contract holders decreased, and the funds flowed out [8]. - Soybeans: The long positions of the main contract holders increased, and the funds flowed out [10].