大越期货沥青期货早报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in China in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The capacity utilization rate has increased, and refineries have increased production, which will increase supply pressure in the short term [8]. - The demand side indicates that the overall demand is lower than the historical average, with some types of asphalt开工率 (operation rates) performing differently, but the overall recovery is less than expected [8]. - The cost side shows that the asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - The inventory is in a state of continuous destocking, including social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [11]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3506 - 3552 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: The planned production in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate this week was 34.7555%, a 3.835 - percentage - point increase. Sample enterprise production increased by 12.40% week - on - week, and the estimated device maintenance volume decreased by 5.91%. Refineries increased production, increasing supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The operation rates of different types of asphalt are different. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 696.98 yuan/ton, a 4.00% week - on - week decrease. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 760.1786 yuan/ton, a 10.25% week - on - week decrease. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, factory inventory decreased by 3.18% week - on - week, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 31.25% week - on - week [11]. - Expected Trend: The disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3506 - 3552 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's asphalt market, including contract prices, inventory, operation rates, production, and profit margins of different types of asphalt, as well as their changes compared to the previous period [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Base - spread: On August 6, the Shandong spot price was 3750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 221 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - Spread between Contracts: The report presents the historical spread trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts [23][24]. - Price Ratio of Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [33][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt [38][41]. - Supply - side Analysis: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production, operation rate, and estimated maintenance loss volume [44][46][49]. - Inventory Analysis: It covers exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio [64][68][71]. - Import and Export Analysis: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79]. - Demand - side Analysis: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt operation rate, and downstream operation status [80][83][86]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [104][105].