大越期货原油早报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the additional 25% tariff on India and the full - scale drawdown of EIA inventory support oil prices, the potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may significantly hit oil prices, causing them to fall back to the bottom of the previous trading range. The oil price will still fluctuate greatly in the future. The White House plans to implement secondary sanctions on Friday, and there are many uncertainties in the peace talks. Investors should reduce positions and operate cautiously. Short - term prices will range from 497 to 505, and long - term investors can hold long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The US may impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil, Trump announced a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, and Saudi Arabia raised the September crude oil price for Asian customers by $1 compared to August, with a neutral outlook [3]. - Basis: On August 6, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.49 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.76 per barrel. The basis was 17.98 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish sign [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 1 decreased by 4.233 million barrels (expected: - 1.845 million barrels), and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels (expected: - 0.591 million barrels). The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.453 million barrels. As of August 6, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.249 million barrels, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the price was below the moving average, showing a bearish sign [3]. - Main Position: As of July 29, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased, indicating a bullish trend [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump may meet with Putin as early as next week and plans to hold a tri - party meeting with Putin and Zelensky. Trump is optimistic about a cease - fire, and Putin may agree to peace talks on the condition of discussing territorial exchange [5]. - On August 6, Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, bringing the total tariff on Indian goods this month to 50% due to India's import of Russian oil [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6]. - Bearish Factors: A cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may be achieved, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - Market Driver: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 0.75, - 0.81, - 4.90, and - 0.10 respectively, with decline rates of - 1.11%, - 1.24%, - 0.96%, and - 0.14% [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil changed by - 0.04, - 0.81, - 0.13, - 0.51, and 0.11 respectively, with change rates of - 0.06%, - 1.24%, - 0.18%, - 0.76%, and 0.16% [9]. - API Inventory: As of August 1, the API inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels to 451.694 million barrels [10]. - EIA Inventory: As of August 1, the EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 423.662 million barrels [14]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of July 29, the net long position was 156,023, an increase of 2,692 [18]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of July 29, the net long position was 261,352, an increase of 33,959 [19].