LPG早报-20250807

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The PG futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to increased arrivals, high port inventory pressure, weak domestic combustion demand, and a weak international fundamental outlook [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Data - Spot Prices: Spot prices are fluctuating downward. The cheapest deliverable is South China civil LPG at 4400 yuan/ton. The main contract has shifted to the 09 contract, and the basis has strengthened to 445 (+79). The 9 - 10 monthly spread is -439 (-18) [1]. - International Market: The international market is characterized by a loose fundamental situation. The August CP official price has been lowered, with propane at 520 USD/ton (down 55 USD/ton from last month) and butane at 490 USD/ton (down 55 USD/ton from last month). The estimated landed cost of propane is around 4327 yuan/ton, and that of butane is around 4090 yuan/ton [1]. - Regional Spreads: PG - CP is at 30 (-13), FEI - MB is at 159 (+3), FEI - CP is at 5 (+0.5), the US - Asia arbitrage window is open, and the CP propane landed discount is fluctuating. FEI - MOPJ first widened and then narrowed, currently at -53 (-5) [1]. Market Trends - Futures Market: The PG futures market is showing a weak trend. The basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread has continued to weaken. The 09 - 10 spread is currently -461 (-25). The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Inventory and Supply: There is an increase in arrivals, leading to port inventory accumulation, while factory inventory has slightly decreased. The commodity volume has slightly rebounded [1]. Downstream Industry - Profitability: PDH - to - PP spot profits are fluctuating, and paper profits are continuously improving. Profits of other downstream devices have declined. The PDH operating rate is 72.63% (-0.5 pct), with Liaoning Jinfa resuming production and Tianjin Bohua shutting down due to a fault. Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Ruiheng are expected to restart next week [1].