大越期货贵金属早报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Reportedly, peace talks between Trump and Ukraine may make progress, and Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, with exemptions for companies like Apple building factories in the US. Gold prices oscillated and declined. The premium of Shanghai gold futures has widened to 0 yuan/gram. Supported by the dovish expectations of the new Fed, gold prices will oscillate [4]. - Silver: Reportedly, peace talks between Trump and Ukraine may make progress, and Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, with exemptions for companies like Apple building factories in the US. Silver prices oscillated and slightly rose. The premium of Shanghai silver has widened to around 400 yuan/kg. With the domestic sentiment significantly cooling down and the risk appetite recovering, silver prices are on the strong side [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - Gold: The reported possible progress in the peace talks between Trump and Ukraine led to a slight decline in gold prices. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields varied, the US dollar index fell by 0.55% to 98.22, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.08% to $3431.8 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The reported possible progress in the peace talks between Trump and Ukraine led to a slight rise in silver prices. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields varied, the US dollar index fell by 0.55% to 98.22, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures rose 0.3% to $37.935 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is -3.74, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 36 kilograms to 36045 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [4]. - Silver: The basis is -32, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 4553 kilograms to 1161844 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 09:30: Australia's June goods and services trade balance - 10:00: State Council policy routine press conference on the implementation of free preschool education policy - TBD: China's July imports, exports, and trade balance - 16:00: China's July foreign exchange reserves, European Central Bank's economic bulletin release - 18:00: ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn's speech on geopolitical situation - 19:00: Bank of England's interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report - 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2, preliminary Q2 non - farm productivity - 21:00: ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn's speech - 22:00: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic's online participation in a monetary policy talk - 03:00 the next day: US June consumer credit, Bank of Mexico's interest rate decision [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: Due to Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, remaining prone to rise and hard to fall [9]. - Silver: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: As of August 6, 2025, the long position volume was 221,821, a decrease of 4,216 or 1.87% from the previous day; the short position volume was 61,042, a decrease of 3,266 or 5.08% from the previous day; the net position was 160,779, a decrease of 950 or 0.59% from the previous day [28]. - Silver: As of August 6, 2025, the long position volume was 343,788, an increase of 698 or 0.20% from the previous day; the short position volume was 273,145, an increase of 1,237 or 0.45% from the previous day; the net position was 70,643, a decrease of 539 or 0.76% from the previous day [31].