《能源化工》日报-20250807

Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Crude Oil: Current oil price decline is driven by OPEC+ production increase, and supply-demand logic will dominate oil price trends in the short term. Suggest trading in a band, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Consider capturing volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [2]. - Pure Benzene: In the short term, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The BZ2603 contract should follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [5]. - Styrene: In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider closing short positions in EB09 and look for opportunities to short at high prices [5]. - Methanol: MA09 is expected to accumulate inventory, while MA01 has seasonal demand and potential supply reduction from Iranian plants. Consider buying MA01 at low prices [30]. - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda market is in a weak state. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August. Consider holding short positions at high prices [40]. - PVC: The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand. Future prices are likely to continue to decline [40]. - Polyolefins: In August, there is pressure on inventory accumulation. However, there is potential for restocking in the seasonal peak season. Consider closing short positions at 7200 - 7300 and continue to hold LP01 [44]. - Urea: In the short term, the urea market is dominated by bullish sentiment. There is a game between positive factors such as the Indian tender and negative factors such as the off - peak agricultural demand [52]. - Polyester Industry Chain: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets are all affected by supply - demand relationships and oil prices. They are expected to fluctuate in certain ranges, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [56]. Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: On August 7, Brent was at $66.92, WTI at $64.41, and SC at 502.10 yuan/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS decreased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 and SC M1 - M3 increased [2]. - EIA Data: As of August 1, US crude oil production was 1328.4万桶/日, refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, and commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 302.9万桶 [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices and Spreads: On August 6, the price of pure benzene and related products changed. For example, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.9%. Styrene prices also had minor fluctuations [5]. - Inventory and开工率: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the开工 rates of related industries had different changes [5]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: On August 6, MA2601 closed at 2503, MA2509 at 2396. The MA91 spread decreased by 7.00% [28]. - Inventory and开工率: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 9.50%, while port inventory increased by 14.48% [29]. Caustic Soda and PVC - Prices and Spreads: On August 6, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged, and the price of PVC in East China increased slightly [35]. - Supply and Demand: The caustic soda industry's开工率 increased, while the PVC total开工率 decreased. The demand for caustic soda and PVC downstream industries was weak [38][39][40]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: On August 6, L2601 closed at 7382, PP2601 at 7120. Some spreads such as L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [44]. - Inventory and开工率: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and the开工 rates of related devices decreased [44]. Urea - Prices and Spreads: On August 6, the price of urea in various regions increased slightly. The futures prices of different contracts decreased [52]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea daily production increased slightly, and factory inventory decreased by 3.24% [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices and Spreads: On August 6, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of downstream polyester products had different changes [56]. - 开工率: The开工 rates of PX, PTA, and other industries had different degrees of change [56].