工业硅期货早报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has increased slightly. It is expected that industrial silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling continues to increase. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable. It is expected that polysilicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 49900 - 52790 [10]. - The main logic for the market is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [14][15]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 70,000 tons, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week, and the demand remained sluggish [6]. - Inventory: The silicon inventory was 229,000 tons, at a high level; the silicone inventory was 54,300 tons, at a low level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 2,354 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season weakened [6]. - Basis: On August 6th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 400 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Market sentiment: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral sentiment; the net position of the main force is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish sentiment [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for August is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11GW, a 1.78% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is at a loss. 8 - month production scheduling is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. The July cell output was 57.26GW, a 1.90% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 3.86GW, a 27.57% decrease from the previous week, and currently, cell production is at a loss. The August production scheduling is 59.15GW, a 3.30% increase from the previous month. The July module output was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month. The expected module output in August is 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month. Currently, module production is profitable [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Basis: On August 6th, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,345 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Market sentiment: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish sentiment; the net position of the main force is long, with a reduction in long positions, showing a bullish sentiment [12]. 3.2 Market Overviews 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts generally increased, with the increase ranging from 1.18% to 2.74%. The spot prices of different types of silicon remained mostly unchanged [18]. - The weekly social inventory increased by 0.93% to 540,000 tons, and the weekly sample enterprise inventory decreased by 3.41% to 171,450 tons. The weekly inventory of major ports decreased by 0.83% to 119,000 tons [18]. - The weekly output of sample enterprises increased by 5.33% to 32,625 tons [18]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of various silicon wafers, cells, and modules remained mostly unchanged. The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74% to 12.9GW, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5GW [20]. - The cell output in July increased by 1.90% to 57.26GW, and the module output in July increased by 1.73% to 47.1GW [20]. - The domestic inventory of modules decreased by 51.73% to 24.76GW, and the European inventory decreased by 2.30% to 29.8GW [20]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [22]. - Inventory: Displays the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses, including delivery warehouses and ports, as well as the weekly inventory of SMM sample enterprises [25]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: Shows the historical trends of the weekly output of SMM sample enterprises, monthly output by specification, and the weekly and monthly capacity utilization rates of industrial silicon [27]. - Component Cost Trends: Presents the historical trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in major production areas [32]. - Cost - Sample Region Trends: Displays the historical trends of the cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [34]. - Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Analyzes the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including production, consumption, import, export, and inventory data [36][63]. - Downstream Market Trends: - Organic Silicon: Covers the price, production, profit, cost, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42]. - Aluminum Alloy: Includes the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy, as well as related waste aluminum and aluminum scrap data [50]. - Polysilicon Downstream: Analyzes the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance of silicon wafers, cells, modules, and related photovoltaic accessories, as well as the cost - profit trends of components and the photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends [60].